Whither Wittman?
What happens in Virginia after the "yes" vote on the referendum
Greetings from Wittman Watch 👋 !
Despite Congressman Rob Wittman’s hypocritical and somewhat desperate efforts to persuade Virginians to vote against the 2026 redistricting referendum (HB1384), on Tuesday Virginia voted to approve it by a 3% margin.
Yes: 51.44%
No: 48.56%
This constitutional amendment allows Virginia to respond to other states’ mid-decade redistricting by temporarily bypassing the bipartisan independent commission to redraw its congressional maps.
Voters turned out in big numbers for this election. The early vote surpassed one million. And no wonder, because Virginia’s redistricting referendum was one of the most-watched political issues of 2025-26, given its implications for the House of Representatives. Its passing helps cancel out the gains Republicans thought they would achieve via their own mid-decade redistricting in several states, giving Democrats a potential gain of four Virginian seats in the midterm elections.
The result means lots of changes in Virginia as we approach the November midterm elections, and especially for incumbents like Wittman.
According to Democratic state House Speaker Don Scott: “Virginia just changed the trajectory of the 2026 midterms… At a moment when Trump and his allies are trying to lock in power before voters have a say, Virginians stepped up and leveled the playing field for the entire country.”
But Virginia traveled a rocky road on the way to passing HB1384. Aggressive campaigning for and against the bill began immediately. President Trump railed against it. Dark money groups, one reportedly backed by billionaire and Palantir owner Peter Thiel, flooded Virginia with mailers and ads filled with disinformation, leaving some voters confused or misled. Collectively, the referendum campaigns raised about $85 million, making HB1384 “Virginia’s most expensive ballot question” (see also the Virginia Public Access Project). VA-01 Congressman Rob Wittman and VA-05 Congressman John McGuire filed a lawsuit against state election officials to challenge redistricting and muddied the waters. And chaos agent Steve Bannon called Democrats “demonic” for pursuing redistricting, even though the redistricting battle began with Texas Republicans taking up the president’s demand.
Many who generally oppose gerrymandering — including state representatives like Senator Schuyler VanValkenburg (SD 16) and plenty of everyday Virginians — supported the referendum because other states were “skewing their Congressional districts to favor the Republican Party.” The outcome shows once again how out of step Wittman is with Virginia voters who want free and fair elections across America.
The redistricting ball is now in the hands of the Virginia Supreme Court
On April 27, the Virginia Supreme Court will consider legal challenges to the amendment from the Republican National Committee and allied plaintiffs (which includes Rob Wittman). This is because “a Tazewell County judge ruled that Democrats’ redistricting push was improperly done and temporarily blocked it.”
Circuit Court Judge Jack Hurley Jr. ruled that
“Lawmakers failed to follow their own rules for adding the redistricting amendment to a special session”
Lawmakers’ “initial vote failed to occur before the public began casting ballots in last year’s general election and thus didn’t count toward the two-step process”
“The state failed to publish the amendment three months before that election, as required by law”
In response, the state Supreme Court ordered the referendum to go forward. Now that the referendum has passed, the justices will rule on the merits of the case.
What’s next?
The first item is procedural: the Virginia State Board of Elections needs to certify the election results. If the legal hurdles are overcome and the election result certified, the new maps will shift the balance of Virginia’s congressional seats to favor Democrats. Projections range from 6-5 to 9-2 and even to 10–1. Across Virginia, new configurations of Democratic primaries will shape up, a mix of incumbents and candidates shifting to new districts based on the new maps. See what redistricting means for you (via the non-partisan VPAP).
Officially redrawing the congressional maps means the dissolution of the current First District. That means Wittman, who says he’s running for re-election, will have to choose a new district in which to run. If he wants to retire, he won’t get any argument from us. So far it appears he’s hoping that the Supreme Court will rule against the amendment entirely, and the map will not change at all. If the maps do change, our bet is that he’ll run in the probable new VA-08, where Wittman’s home is located and where Congressman Don Beyer is effectively the incumbent.
The 2026 Democratic candidates who are challenging Wittman for his seat in the current VA-01 must also decide where to run if the maps change, and can do so in any district they choose. Some of the candidates have already decided:
First District: Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs (press release) and Tim Cywinski (press release)
Fifth District: Salaam Bhatti (article), Shannon Taylor, and Mel Tull
Eighth District: Jason Knapp (press release)
Ericka Kopp’s press release indicated that “I respect the decision of the people…Should Virginians approve redistricting, the campaign will issue an additional statement.” Lewis Littlepage’s press release about the referendum election indicated that if redistricting happens, he’ll live “three miles outside the new District 8,” but didn’t conclusively say where he might run.
If you’re in any of the above districts, learn more about the Democratic primary candidates running in them as well as their legislative agendas.
If redistricting happens, it will be a political sea change in Virginia. Time will tell what its long-term impact will be.
How do you feel about the redistricting referendum passing? Let us know by posting comments here or on any of our social media channels: Facebook, Instagram, BlueSky, or Reddit.