State of the race in a state of limbo
It's a worrying time to be Wittman
Greetings from Wittman Watch HQ! 👋
Last week we had a post-referendum review.
For our Tuesday Myth of the Week, we asked: is Wittman good for rural Virginians?
Our social channels have been abuzz this week with lots of spirited debate. Join us on Substack, Facebook, BlueSky, Instagram, or Reddit.
Since our last “State of the Race” in February, we’ve had new candidates, a referendum, and more news to consume than is healthy, so it’s time for an update.
Until the Virginia Supreme Court rules on the validity of the referendum, we won’t know exactly what the road ahead looks like. (About that case: it should be noted that the questions are not on the outcome of the referendum. Republicans are trying to negate the referendum by complaining that the legal process that created it was flawed and not valid. 51.68% of Virginia approved the referendum — a slight increase from the numbers available to us on Tuesday — so it’ll take some moxie plus a whole lot of overturned precedent for the court to declare it invalid.)
Today we’ll review what new maps under the referendum may look like; what each candidate has said so far about their intentions on running under new maps; and what we can discern from the Wittman campaign’s first quarter of 2026 financial results.
You’ll need a map to find your representative
Whether or not we have a clear and accurate map today, we’ve never been able to find Rob Wittman in VA-01 because his public appearances are brief, secretive, and always disappointing (66% similar to his term in office). If the referendum is struck down, VA-01 will stay as it is. If the referendum holds, a whole lotta change will happen.
Courtesy of our wonderful friends at VPAP, here’s how the new maps will look, together with their partisan lean (deep red being more Republican, dark blue more Democratic). The current VA-01 will be split between the new VA-01, VA-04, and VA-08. To see where you will be in the new maps, scroll to the bottom of this VPAP page and enter your address.
Whither Will Wittman Wander, and With Whom?
Under the new maps, where will Rob Wittman and all the current VA-01 candidates end up, and against whom will they each likely run?
Rob Wittman, VA-01 incumbent
Wittman has not announced in which district he will run under the new maps, only that he has “complete confidence that this amendment [on the referendum] will be struck down by the courts.” We think that sounds pretty desperate.
His refusal to commit to running under the new map may be strategically wise; as other candidates rush to get started in those districts, he can bide his time and hoard his funds for a later, laser-targeted campaign launch. Or it may be an early admission that he intends to simply retire rather than run in a competitive district — something he has never had to do before. Remember, Wittman won our seat in a special election in 2007, and the district has never before been considered truly competitive by the Democratic Party. But this year is a different story.
And it gets worse for Rob: a recent, Republican-run poll that investigated VA-01 voters’ opinions on Wittman was not encouraging for him.
They cast Shannon Taylor as his imaginary opponent and, even without strong name recognition, she’s just 2 points behind Wittman on the generic ballot.
23% of voters had never heard of Wittman, and 20% had no opinion - and he’s had 18 years in office!
Given this, we can understand why he might consider quitting. The poll listed several campaign messages that Wittman could run on — all gaslighting nonsense, naturally — and after reviewing those, the gap between him and Taylor was 12 points. So if Wittman runs, expect a deluge of misinformation, disinformation, and lies about his “achievements” on healthcare, taxes, energy, affordability, and expanding home ownership.
Wittman lives in Montross, which is squarely in the new VA-08. Candidates don’t have to live in the district in which they live — you can be a resident in any part of Virginia and run in any district in the state — but the Northern Neck has historically voted along Republican lines. If he’s going to have a shot at winning a seat anywhere under the new map, VA-08 is likely it, however remote that chance may be. VA-08 connects the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula to Alexandria in Northern Virginia, where Rep. Don Beyer is a well-liked incumbent. But he’s not the only well-qualified candidate Wittman may need to think about.
Current-Map VA-01 Candidates
Among all the analysis on the referendum, BlueVirginia has been doing an outstanding job tracking the impacts across the state. Note that BlueVirginia is most definitely a Democratic-leaning resource, and their content reflects that fact. Nonetheless, so far they have compiled the best lists of candidates who may run in each district. Here’s a summary of where the (current-map) VA-01 candidates are headed.
VA-01: Tim Cywinski (unconfirmed), Ericka Kopp (unconfirmed)
VA-05: Salaam Bhatti, Shannon Taylor, Mell Tull
VA-08: Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs, Jason Knapp, Lewis Littlepage
Notably, no one has elected to run against Jennifer McClellan in the new VA-04. And also note that BlueVirginia doesn’t even include Wittman on their list of candidates in any district. Hmmm!
Money makes Wittman’s world go ’round
The FEC recently released the campaign finance data reports for the first quarter of 2026. While the referendum has made things mighty complicated (as candidates shift from one district to another), we can identify a few interesting trends, especially in Rob Wittman’s report.
This quarter Wittman raised $265,820 from individual donations, $307,500 from PACs, and $321,429 from other committees. Considering expenses and other incoming funds, his overall cash position improved by $680,796, leaving him with $3,859,790 cash on hand at the end of the quarter.
When we reported on Wittman’s 2025 fundraising, we noted how he “serves big donors, not you,” and this quarter is no different. Virtually NONE of Rob Wittman’s Q1 2026 fundraising came from small donors giving $200 or less; his Q1 fundraising was overwhelmingly powered by donors who give high‑dollar contributors and max out the annual donation limits. Wittman continues to serve big donors, not you.
Those big donors are clustered in certain industries, and most aren’t even based in Virginia:
Real estate brokers / developers: Donors come from Bailey Properties (California), The Baldwin Companies (North Carolina), ERA Wilder Realty (South Carolina), Brindley Beach Vacations (North Carolina), Chandler Group (North Carolina), Jacksonville Board of Realtors (North Carolina), ERA Kings Bay Realty (Georgia), and others.
Defense and shipbuilding: Executives from companies such as Palantir (California, part-owned by Peter Thiel), Anduril (California, also part-owned by Peter Thiel), EURPAC Service Inc. (a Connecticut defense marketing/logistics), BWX Technologies (a Virginia major nuclear components and services supplier for the Navy), Lockheed Martin (Maryland), and many others.
Look at those real estate companies up and down nearby coastal regions — notably none in Virginia! — and remember that Wittman receives significant annual income from his beach rental house in North Carolina. Is it a coincidence that last year he voted to pass a tax cut on rental property income that enriches himself and other rental property owners, who are the clients of rental real estate brokers?
Donations from defense contractors is no surprise; Wittman’s position as Vice Chair on the House Armed Services Committee gives him sway over the annual National Defense Authorization Act, and these companies rely upon it. But can anyone possibly argue that Wittman addresses his constituents’ needs before the desires of the companies funding his campaigns? And doesn’t it make most of us nauseous to know that Wittman is funded by Palantir, a company at the center of the Trump administration’s compiling data on American citizens, supporting DOGE’s likely-illegal mining of IRS data, and who were also responsible for the deaths of 180 Iranian school children?
Real Virginians prefer real candidates who really want to work for them
The Democrats in the field can’t match Wittman’s cash-in-hand. That’s no surprise: Wittman has had 18 years to build his treasury while most of his opponents just started their campaigns in 2025. Add to that the fact that fundraising is spread across all candidates until after the primary, and that the new maps aren’t even settled yet, and it’s clear why none of them match Wittman’s totals… yet. But the momentum is undeniable!
Let’s look at Shannon Taylor, the Democrat who raised the most money in 2025, to see how she’s performing in comparison to Wittman. This quarter Taylor raised $420,290 from individuals, $101,315 from PACs, and $12,000 from other committees. She has $822,256 cash right now. Pay attention to the donation sources! Taylor raised 58% more than Wittman from individuals, and almost the same amount as Wittman overall. Jason Knapp, Salaam Bhatti, Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs, and others have all ramped up their fundraising this year and, like Taylor, most of their money is coming from individual donors.
So it turns out that real people in our district are eager to donate to Wittman’s opponents.
The data verifies what we found in our last campaign finance report: Wittman’s fundraising among regular voters is poor, and he relies on PACs and other committees to make up the ground. Our bet is that, once we get past the Democratic primary, more individuals will pour more money to the campaign of Wittman’s nominated opponent — in whatever district he runs — and his cash advantage will start to dwindle.
Speaking of which…
Early voting in the Democratic primary will begin on June 18th, and Election Day is August 4th. Make a note in your calendar now to register or confirm your registration, request your mail-in ballot, go vote early in-person, or arrange to get to the polls on August 4th.
Mo’ maps, mo’ money, no Wittman
Our area’s electoral situation is in something of a limbo state until:
The Supreme Court rules on the new maps.
Wittman declares where (if) he’ll run.
The Democratic Party decides on its candidates.
That doesn’t mean you can’t make progress now! Here are our suggestions for what you can do to advance things.
Confirm what district you will be in under the new maps.
Attend campaign events to get to know all the candidates (including Wittman). We announce all the events we know about on our social channels.
Donate to the candidate(s) you feel best reflect your priorities. Links to the current VA-01 candidates’ campaign sites are here.
Stay engaged with Wittman Watch and participate in our active conversations across social channels.
Rob Wittman is holding on to his seat by a thread. His fundraising is reliant on his position. Real Virginians don’t care for him as much as they do his opponents. His party is on an unprecedented losing streak across the country. Americans think his boss is literally the worst president in history. The new maps are not favorable to Wittman’s future electoral prospects and may even persuade him to retire. He has never had to defend his seat from such a weak position, nor against such a strong field of highly qualified, motivated, and supported candidates.
What a time to be a Virginian!
I love this newsletter. I get Wittman's emails and I CANNOT read them. They piss me off.